Accounting and Modelling
Overview
Lens 1 provides the analytical foundation for understanding emissions across the UK economy. It focuses on how energy, materials and emissions flow through production and consumption systems, both within the UK and across global supply chains.
By using advanced accounting and modelling techniques, this work helps identify where the greatest opportunities exist to reduce emissions- across businesses, sectors and the wider economy.
Our Approach
Transforming production and consumption requires a clear picture of how emissions are generated and where they can be reduced. The Accounting and Modelling lens draws on a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model developed at the University of Leeds, which underpins the UK’s official consumption-based emissions accounts.
This approach tracks emissions across entire supply chains, including those embodied in imports and exports. It reveals that a significant proportion of emissions linked to UK consumption occur overseas, highlighting an important and often underused opportunity for mitigation. The modelling framework provides a complete system view, allowing emissions to be analysed consistently across scales, from national accounts to individual sectors and businesses. This enables more accurate carbon accounting and supports the development of targeted interventions.
In addition to emissions, the same framework can be applied to material use and energy demand, providing a comprehensive understanding of resource flows.
Our Ambitions
The focus of this lens is to improve how emissions, energy and material flows are measured and used in decision-making.
Key ambitions include:
- Strengthening and refining modelling approaches to provide more detailed and accurate insights across the economy
- Enabling policymakers to identify high-impact intervention points across supply chains
- Supporting businesses to better understand and act on their supply chain emissions
- Integrating emissions accounting with wider modelling approaches (including system dynamics and macroeconomic analysis)
- Contributing to the development of realistic, system-wide pathways to net zero
A key innovation will be the development of an online carbon accounting platform, allowing businesses to estimate their supply chain emissions using financial data -making this analysis more accessible and actionable.
Delivering Impact
We will apply our methods to key sectors, including automotive and construction, to:
- Map supply chains in detail
- Identify upstream and downstream emissions
- Highlight priority areas for intervention
- Test how modelling insights can inform real-world change
This work will be integrated with insights from the other PACT research themes to ensure a comprehensive systems perspective.
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